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  • Sector momentum table 2011-06-17

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Asset momentum table 2011-06-17

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • S&P 500 at the 200-day moving average

    Alexander Gloy

    Interesting technical constellation for the S&P 500 index. Today’s intra-day low (1,258.07) almost touched the 200-day moving average (1,257.90). The exponential 200-day moving average (1,262.85) was breached (but not on a closing basis). Tomorrow, Friday June 17th, is a big option expiration day, so anything is possible. However, the 200-day moving average will not fall…

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  • Sector momentum table 2011-06-10

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Asset momentum table 2011-06-10

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Fun with inverse ETFs

    Alexander Gloy

    I love Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). In theory. In practice they are being abused by issuers and traders alike (see Beware of systemic risk in ETF). But that’s another topic. Today let’s take a look what can happen with inverse ETF through the compounding effect. I like inverse ETF (i.e. SH) on the stock market,…

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  • Technical indicators: NAAD, NAHL, NAHLr

    Alexander Gloy

    After almost a year of gathering data we are fine-tuning the Lighthouse Investment Management Timing Indicator (LIMTI). We want to overweight constituents delivering good entry and exit signals. One such indicator is the Advance-Decline-Line (number of rising stocks minus number of falling stocks, cumulative over a time period). We prefer the Nasdaq (as NYSE has…

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  • Investment choices in a world of incompetent central bankers

    Alexander Gloy

    Much of the following next is an excerpt from the May 2011 “Letter to investors”. This is supposed to be”big-picture thinking” and will only be updated if warranted. 1. As the economy is artificially inflated so are company profits and stocks. The party might continue – until someone like Paul Volker gets installed at the Fed. It…

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  • ETF: Beware of systemic risk

    Alexander Gloy

    This is a topic I should have paid more attention to earlier: systemic risk in ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Here are my thoughts in a few bullet points: ETFs are a great idea. They allow diversification at minimal cost to the investor (especially compared to mutual funds). Unfortunately, the financial  industry is in the process…

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  • Is this a buying opportunity?

    Alexander Gloy

    The earthquake and nuclear situation in Japan has triggered a sell-off in the equity markets. Is this a buying opportunity? I say “no”. Two reasons: 1. The Japanese situation is likely to trigger many “unintended” consequences we cannot anticipate right now (for example a strong Yen will hurt profits of Japanese exporters, hence depress their…

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