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  • Someone would like to see Greece burn

    Alexander Gloy

    After the close of European equity markets the Sueddeutsche Zeitung ran the following story: Without naming sources, the newspaper claims Euro-Group had decided on an emergency plan for Greece, which would include capital controls. Which is nonsense, since only Greece can decide on capital controls. Greece, of course, denied having such plans: By refusing to…

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  • IMF stops bailout talks with Greece

    Alexander Gloy

    Some headlines rattling markets a bit, citing IMF spokesperson Rice: * Greek bailout talks stopped amid failure to make progress * There are major differences between the IMF and Greece in most key areas * No progress in trying to narrow those differences * Talks are deadlocked over taxes, pensions and financing * Greece pension system…

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  • VIX and subsequent performance

    Alexander Gloy

    How many times do you read “the VIX is so low, everybody is complacent, a crash must be around the corner”. Or “the VIX peaked, the fear has peaked, this is the moment to buy”? Contrary to conventional wisdom we found that a low VIX Index contains zero information about future stock market performance. Read…

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  • Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time

    Alexander Gloy

    Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.

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  • Conference Briefing: Jim Rickards at the DCA, January 10, 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find the document here

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  • Monetary Policy – The N-Word

    Alexander Gloy

    In this excerpt from the December 2012 “Letter to Investors” we look at what looms when the Federal Reserve will embrace nominal-GDP targeting, possibly as early as 2013: Monetary Policy – The N-Word

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  • Lighthouse Macro Report – November 2012: Introducing LRPI

    Alexander Gloy

    Frustrated by shortcomings of available tools I have created an indicator yielding timely and exact probabilities for US recessions. Please find the report here (freely available): Lighthouse Macro Report: Introducing LRPI

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  • September data reveals increased risk appetite among ETF investors

    Alexander Gloy

    Tracking flows in and out of major exchange-traded funds (ETF) can reveal investors’ risk appetite. The 23 largest ETF’s by assets under management represent approximately 50% of all US ETF assets. In September, the largest inflows in percent of assets were registered by domestic equity (SPY), gold mining stocks (GDX) and high yield bonds (HYG):…

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  • European car engine stuttering

    Alexander Gloy

    According to data released by ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association)  new passenger car registrations fell 8.9% in August after a decline of 7.8% in July. European car markets are quite diverse; it makes more sense to look at them individually: The PIIGS are firmly in control of the bottom (what’s up with those Nordics, Sweden…

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  • “Who moved my recession?”

    Alexander Gloy

    Lakshman Achutan, ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) made a recession call for the US on September 30, 2011 (and confirmed it multiple times since then). Gary Shilling, titling his August letter “Global Recession”, says “We are already in a global recession.” However, equity markets don’t think so, with the S&P 500 trading less than 10%…

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