Lighthouse Investment Management

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Month: October 2011

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  • Mystery solved: ECB can’t afford the Greek barber shop

    Alexander Gloy

    Whenever you come across a mystery in finance there always is an explanation. Like the question why the ECB would so ferociously resist any “haircuts” on Greek debt. Despite all the evidence that current debt, now expected to peak at levels exceeding most calculators’ capacity, is unsustainable. Why would the ECB, the largest single holder…

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  • Portugal: fiddler paid, music stops

    Alexander Gloy

    While Greece is pretty forthcoming with its apocalyptic fiscal data, the same cannot be said of Portugal. When it comes to inquiring about monthly fiscal deficits you bite on granite. Banco de Portugal has limited quarterly figures. The “Instituto Nacional de Estatistica” has conducted a study about population growth in Angola. It supplies data series…

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  • The Greek (Ministry) Mystery of Finance

    Alexander Gloy

    The Greek January – September budget deficit was EUR 19.16bn versus 16.65bn same period last year (+15%). This only includes the central government. The initial deficit target for 2011 was EUR 17bn. We blew past that after only 8 months. The revised target (July) is now 22bn (9.5% of GDP). Latest estimate from the Greek…

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  • To EFSF or not to EFSF – a Franco-German drama

    Alexander Gloy

    (with simultaneous translation from Euro-lingo into plain English) 4:05: “Direct help for bank recapitalization from EFSF is not at all doable” – German Economy Minister (Translation: “Frogs, I thought we told you already, your plan doesn’t fly”) 6:00: “It is important to us that all banks are equipped for all eventualities and must go to…

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  • Zerohedge: High Noon at the Swiss National Bank

    Alexander Gloy

    Influential blog “zerohedge” published our recent post on the Swiss National Bank: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-high-noon-swiss-national-bank

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  • High Noon at the Swiss National Bank

    Alexander Gloy

    Tomorrow, Thursday (October 6th), the Swiss National Bank will report its foreign currency reserves for September at 9am local (3am EST). We will know then how much Euros had to be gobbled up in order to defend the “peg”. Increasing tick volume in recent days looks suspicious – why would there be more volume than…

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