Lighthouse Investment Management

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Month: September 2010

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  • Ireland’s bank bail-out cost reaches EUR 50bn; bond sales suspended

    Alexander Gloy

    Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen just announced the government decided to cancel all bond auctions for the rest of the year because of “market turbulence”. The 10yr yield, after having reached a record 6.8% in recent days, retreated to 6.57%. Irish 10 year government bond yield. Source: Bloomberg.com On Thursday, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan revealed…

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  • Ireland’s solvency now ranked between Pakistan and Ukraine

    Alexander Gloy

    Ireland is now right between Ukraine and Pakistan when it comes to likelihood of default (which, over the next 5 years, is at 35%). This after Irish GDP fell 1.2% in Q2 (vs +0.5% expected) and Q1 growth rate was revised down to 2.2% (from 2.7%). GNP (gross national product) fell 4.1% (-2.7% expected). Irish…

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  • Former German FinMin says Greece will default

    Alexander Gloy

    From an interview (9/14/2010) with German magazine “Der Spiegel” former German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck (2005-2009): SPIEGEL: In the end, the euro-zone countries approved a bailout package that required Athens to impose a drastic austerity program and that includes loans worth €110 billion. Are the measures sufficient? Steinbrück: Just look at the numbers. Despite the…

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  • Portuguese bond auction: high yields, low demand

    Alexander Gloy

    10 year Portuguese government bond yields today retreated to 6.13% (from 6.31%) after the auction of fresh government debt: EUR 450m of 4yr paper at 4.70% (vs 3.62% at previous auction) and 300m of 10yr debt at 6.24% (vs 5.31%). The total of EUR 750m raised was at the low end of the planned 750m-1bn…

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  • Irish bond auction a “success” – EFSF would have been cheaper

    Alexander Gloy

    10yr Irish government bond yields eased today to 6.29% (-0.19) after the “successful” auction of 3 1/2 (yield 4.77% vs 3.63% at previous auction) and 8 year (6.02% vs 5.09%) new government debt. This now has cemented the fact that it would be cheaper for Ireland to ask the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) for…

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  • Greece cancels plans to sell additional debt

    Alexander Gloy

    Greece just cancelled a road show that was supposed to begin on Wednesday in London to sell more debt. The Prime Minister said “Greece won’t come to the market now” and “Greece is on target for deficit cuts”. Guys at the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) – on your marks! Looks like you might be…

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  • Irish and Portuguese spreads at all time highs

    Alexander Gloy

    All-time highs for Portuguese and Irish 10yr yield spreads: 10yr Portuguese government bond yields – intraday September 20, 2010. Source: Bloomberg. 10yr Irish government bond yields – intraday September 20, 2010. Source: Bloomberg. Market fears that tomorrow’s (9/21) EUR 1.5bn auction of fresh Irish debt (4 and 8 years) might not go well. Irish 10yr…

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  • Ireland: Rumors, rumors… and spread widening

    Alexander Gloy

    Here we go again: Irish 10yr government bond yields 6.27% (+0.23) this morning after article in the Irish Independent about possible IMF intervention. Rumors of Anglo Irish Bank going bankrupt. 10 year Irish government bond yield. Source: Bloomberg.com Portugal 10yr now at 6.07% (+0.11), highest since May.

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  • More on BoJ intervention; Swiss unions demand same

    Alexander Gloy

    According to rumors the BoJ (Bank of Japan) last night spent JPY 100bn ($1.16bn) on currency interventions. The Yen weakened by 3%. Will the BoJ be successful? The Japanese trade balance is positive by JPY800bn per month (or JPY 40bn per trading day) meaning they would have to buy half a billion USD per day…

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  • BoJ intervenes to weaken JPY

    Alexander Gloy

    BoJ (Bank of Japan) intervenes for the first time since 2004 in the currency market after the Yen reached at 15-year high versus the USD (hurting Japanese exporters). According to rumors they are throwing JPY 200-300bn (USD 2.4-3.6bn) on the market. Not huge, but it draws a line in the sand. Unless other central banks…

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