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  • Reporting season in full bloom: Oct 19-23

    Alexander Gloy

    We will have earnings reports from more than 400 US companies this week, among them 135 S&P 500 members. Some of the most prominent are: 3M (MMM), Amex (AXP), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Coca-Cola (KO), DuPont (DD), McDonald’s (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer (PFE), Travelers (TRV) and United Technologies (UTX).…

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  • Are stocks cheap?

    Alexander Gloy

    How do we determine if stocks are over- or undervalued? Future earnings estimates are, as the name suggests, just estimates (and often wrong). On top of that they suffer from a positive bias by the analyst community. Past (reported) earnings are at least real, but they do not hold much information about the future. One…

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  • Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands

    Alexander Gloy

    Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool invented by John Bollinger in the 1980s. How does it work? You basically take a moving average (eg 21 days) and lay around this trend a band by adding and subtracting sigma (volatility) times a konstant k. Now you get a channel. The observed stock (or index etc)…

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  • 70% Capacity Utilization = no inflation

    Alexander Gloy

    Would you raise your prices if you had 30% idle capacities? No, since the producer next door would be more than happy to increase production and sell his stuff at the lower price.

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  • US Monetary Base

    Alexander Gloy

    Today we take a look at the growth of the US Monetary Base, and why inflation has not occurred. With M1 / M2 growth slowing down dramatically, and possibly turning negative, implications for the stock markets are negative.

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  • Is the S&P 500 going to make new highs next week?

    Alexander Gloy

    Will 1,080 fall?

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