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  • Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time

    Alexander Gloy

    Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.

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  • Technical analysis February 8, 2012

    Alexander Gloy

    Time to take a look again at the technical picture of the S&P 500 Index, which seems to be in a nice uptrend, undeterred from anything: If only the volume was increasing (usually, higher prices are met with higher volumes as more investors are willing to part with their shares and buyers have to “eat”…

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  • Improving LIMTI

    Alexander Gloy

    The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient-market hypothesis (which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable). If stock prices were unpredictable, my clients would be wasting money. “Technical analysis” tries identify patterns that help determine future prices. You might ask “how can a formula know what happens in the future”? That is a…

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  • What a week

    Alexander Gloy

    Looking at asset class performance during the week August 1-5, 2011: Horrible week for the Dax index, US REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) and Emerging Markets. I had wondered why the Dax managed to perform so well despite Euro zone troubles. It is a pretty cyclical index, and usually outperforms the US indices – in…

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  • Gold and stocks love inflation, right?

    Alexander Gloy

    In theory, stock prices react positively to inflation. You can explain that with the balance sheet effect: while debt remains same in nominal terms, assets gain in value (with the difference showing up in the equity position via net profit). Gold should also benefit from inflation as the supply of precious metals is limited –…

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  • Sector momentum table 2011-07-15

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Asset momentum table 2011-07-15

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Sector momentum table 2011-07-08

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Asset momentum table 2011-07-08

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • Sector momentum table 2011-06-24

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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