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  • Hungarian adventures in CHF: Laszlo wasn’t alone drinking CHF-laced Kool Aid

    Alexander Gloy

    In 2006 and 2007, more than 90% of new Hungarian mortgages were denominated in foreign currencies. Many foreign banks (KBC, Bayerische Landesbank, Erste Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, Raiffeisen, Unicredit) were luring Hungarians with low interest rates. At the time, Hungarian mortgage rates were around 9%, while Euro-mortgages cost around 4.5%. But those cheapo Swissies were to…

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  • Greece: What I learned from a Vietnamese Rickshaw Driver

    Alexander Gloy

    Traveling through Vietnam provided a few valuable lessons for life. You arrive, armed only with a copy of the Lonely Planet. Any map turns out to be pretty useless, as street names are frequently changed or the street layout completely altered (this is mid-1990’s). You are being inundated with offers from “cyclo-” (bicycle rickshaw) drivers.…

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  • Is this a buying opportunity?

    Alexander Gloy

    The earthquake and nuclear situation in Japan has triggered a sell-off in the equity markets. Is this a buying opportunity? I say “no”. Two reasons: 1. The Japanese situation is likely to trigger many “unintended” consequences we cannot anticipate right now (for example a strong Yen will hurt profits of Japanese exporters, hence depress their…

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  • What a taifun in Vietnam taught me about the Euro crisis

    Alexander Gloy

    As I was traveling through Vietnam in the mid-nineties our bus drove through an area visited by a taifun. The road was running on a slightly elevated dam, so initially there was no obstacle to continue the journey. Looking out of the window there was water on both sides as far as the eye could…

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  • US house price decline accelerating

    Alexander Gloy

    US house prices have entered into an accelerating decline. The more I dig into the details the worse it gets. The most widely followed measure of US single family home price is the S&P Cash-Shiller Home Price Index (CS HPI). First a word on how it is calculated: “The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated…

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  • US house prices – Roll out the welcome mat for a double-dip

    Alexander Gloy

    by Alexander Gloy Let’s take a look at the situation after the October data from the Case-Shiller home price index has come in[1]: You see all major metropolitan areas peaking between March and May 2010 (the end of the first-time home-buyer tax credit). After only 8 months in positive territory, the overall index comprising 20…

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  • LIMTI – update 12/15

    Alexander Gloy

    The LIMTI (Lighthouse Investment Management Timing Index) is an experimental project. It is calculated daily on the basis of various statistical readings on the US stock market (mostly S&P 500 Index) to gauge whether the market is overbought (red shaded area) or oversold (green area). Below I will go into detail in regards to which…

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  • Funeral music for the Euro?

    Alexander Gloy

    Funeral music for the Euro-zone? This week, EU leaders will try to agree on limited EU treaty changes at a summit (December 16-17). The aim is to establish a permanent rescue mechanism for countries in financial difficulties. On Monday and Tuesday (December 13-14) foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels to prepare draft conclusions. The…

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