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IMF stops bailout talks with Greece
Some headlines rattling markets a bit, citing IMF spokesperson Rice: * Greek bailout talks stopped amid failure to make progress * There are major differences between the IMF and Greece in most key areas * No progress in trying to narrow those differences * Talks are deadlocked over taxes, pensions and financing * Greece pension system…
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“Good evening, Mr. Bond” – Jim Rickards
Interesting article by Jim Rickards on falling bond market liquidity. He cites the flash crash in US Treasury bond yields last October: Falling yields mean rising bond prices. So the flash crash in yields actually was a flash rally in prices. Usually, investors only get hurt when prices fall (apart from a few short sellers).…
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JOLTs
April JOLTs (Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations) showed an increase in job openings to 5.38m, the highest since the beginning of the series in 2000. At the same time, the number of unemployed continues to decline (8.67m). Hence, the number of unemployed per job opening is falling rapidly (1.73): Does this mean the US labor market…
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2015-06-10 FX moves: JPY, EUR
BoJ (Bank of Japan) Governor Kuroda shook up FX markets a bit overnight, suggesting the Yen was unlikely to weaken further: The Yen rose quickly versus the Dollar from 124.50 to 122.50 (less Yen needed to buy one Dollar = stronger Yen): This is puzzling. The Yen had just begun another leg down…
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Understanding Oil
In this special report we look at the following points: 1. Oil, even at $100 per barrel, is incredibly cheap. 2. Demand and supply for oil are price-inelastic. Which guarantees large price swings. 3. Oil and gas deposits and consumers are millions of miles apart, making transportation the weakest link. 4. OPEC is not a…
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Macro Report – March 2015
In this report we analyze the current state of the US economy and the likelihood of being in a recession. We are looking at the 13 best indicators for real-time clues for our proprietary recession indicator. This indicator has not given any wrong positive or false negative since 1971. Detailed charts on employment, consumption, orders…
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June Macro Report
Free to download here: June Macro Report In our June report we look at 13 publicly available economic indicators. Looking at past reliability and timeliness we defined ranges, which, if breached, indicate certain recession probabilities. In this issue we added a detailed look at US inflation, which seems to have come to life over the…
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Macro Report – April 2014
The latest Macro Report is available here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/219583332/Lighthouse-Macro-Report-2014-April
Author: Alexander Gloy
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