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VIX and subsequent performance
How many times do you read “the VIX is so low, everybody is complacent, a crash must be around the corner”. Or “the VIX peaked, the fear has peaked, this is the moment to buy”? Contrary to conventional wisdom we found that a low VIX Index contains zero information about future stock market performance. Read…
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Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time
Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.
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Conference Briefing: Jim Rickards at the DCA, January 10, 2013
Please find the document here
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Happy Centennial, Dear Fed
Happy Centennial, Dear Fed! Click on above link to read the excerpt from our January 2013 “Letter to Investors”.
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Macro Report – December 2012: 11% recession probability
Please find our December Macro Report here
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Monetary Policy – The N-Word
In this excerpt from the December 2012 “Letter to Investors” we look at what looms when the Federal Reserve will embrace nominal-GDP targeting, possibly as early as 2013: Monetary Policy – The N-Word
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GDP – A Primer
“GDP is one of the most comprehensive and closely watched economic statistics: It is used by the White House and Congress to prepare the Federal budget, by the Federal Reserve to formulate monetary policy, by Wall Street as an indicator of economic activity, and by the business community to prepare forecasts of economic performance that…
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Sales of American Eagle gold coins surge at the US Mint
We track gold and silver Eagle sales on a daily basis at the US Mint The recent surge in gold Eagle sales in unprecedented (our daily records covering 2012) What is even more puzzling: “uncirculated” gold Eagles are sold out at the Mint (but, of course, available at many coin dealers for around $1,800). Nevertheless,…
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Lighthouse Macro Report – November 2012: Introducing LRPI
Frustrated by shortcomings of available tools I have created an indicator yielding timely and exact probabilities for US recessions. Please find the report here (freely available): Lighthouse Macro Report: Introducing LRPI
Author: Alexander Gloy
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