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  • Macro Report – May 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    The Macro Report can be found here . April 2013 highlights: The likelihood of recession declined slightly to 7% from remained a revised 10% in the previous month Output by electric and gas utilities, industrial electricity consumption and miles traveled  are the only variables showing recessionary tendencies Retail sales growth continues to slow Average monthly employment increased…

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  • ETF Report – May 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF report here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/146146105/Lighthouse-ETF-Report-2013-May As a new feature, the report also looks at mutual fund flows. Summary: Risk appetite has begun to cool off International equity ETF’s are seeing significantly less inflows than domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms (but similar inflows relative to their asset base) Emerging market equity ETF’s…

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  • ETF-Report April 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF-Report here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/141248746/Lighthouse-ETF-Report-2013-April   Conclusions: Current risk appetite remains high International equity ETF’s are seeing less inflows than domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms but higher inflows relative to their asset base Emerging market equity ETF’s are still outpacing those investing broadly in international equities but have experienced a significant slow-down…

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  • ETF Report – March 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF Report here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/133857690/Lighthouse-ETF-Report-2013-March Conclusions: Current risk appetite remains high International equity ETF’s are seeing less inflows than domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms but higher inflows relative to their asset base Emerging market equity ETF’s are still outpacing those investing broadly in international equities but have experienced a significant slow-down…

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  • “And the award for the most creative excuse for joining currency wars goes to…”

    Alexander Gloy

    … the Bank of Israel! On Monday, Bank of Israel cut interest rates in a surprise decision to 1.5% from 1.75%. Also, they are done with watching the Shekel strengthen against the dollar: “Beginning this year, and in coming years, the Bank of Israel will purchase foreign exchange in order to offset the effect of…

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  • Marco Report – March 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our March 2013 Macro Report here.

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  • ETF Report – February / March 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF Report here Summary: Current risk appetite is high International equity ETF’s are seeing similar inflows to domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms and higher inflows relative to their asset base Emerging market equity ETF’s are outpacing those investing broadly in international equities Inflows into speculative bond ETF’s have ended…

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  • Macro Report – February 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Based on a combination of 13 macro-economic variables, the likelihood of the US being in a recession dropped from 11% to 7% in February. Read the full report here.

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  • Lighthouse Macro Report – January 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Summary: The LRPI (Lighthouse Recession Probability Indicator) continues to indicate a one-in-nine likelihood for the US economy being in a recession. The implied recession probability remained at 11% in December compared to November. For January, data available so far include a final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (73.8, up from 72.9 in…

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  • (Mostly free) blogs we like

    Alexander Gloy

    Altos Research Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph) Annaly Capital – Executive Insights Behavioral Macro Bespoke Invest Bruce Krasting Christopher Whalen Condor Options Consumer Metrics Institute Daily ETF Flows Dr. Ed’s Blog Doug Short Economics of Contempt EconoPic EuroIntelligence FactSet FRBSF Economic Letter FT Alphaville (paywalled) FT Money Supply (paywalled) FT – Martin Wolff (paywalled) FT – Long Short (paywalled) Humble…

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