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  • Macro Report – March 2015

    Alexander Gloy

    In this report we analyze the current state of the US economy and the likelihood of being in a recession. We are looking at the 13 best indicators for real-time clues for our proprietary recession indicator. This indicator has not given any wrong positive or false negative since 1971. Detailed charts on employment, consumption, orders…

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  • June Macro Report

    Alexander Gloy

    Free to download here: June Macro Report In our June report we look at 13 publicly available economic indicators. Looking at past reliability and timeliness we defined ranges, which, if breached, indicate certain recession probabilities. In this issue we added a detailed look at US inflation, which seems to have come to life over the…

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  • Macro Report – May 2014

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our May Macro Report here

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  • Macro Report – April 2014

    Alexander Gloy

    The latest Macro Report is available here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/219583332/Lighthouse-Macro-Report-2014-April

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  • Macro Report – May 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    The Macro Report can be found here . April 2013 highlights: The likelihood of recession declined slightly to 7% from remained a revised 10% in the previous month Output by electric and gas utilities, industrial electricity consumption and miles traveled  are the only variables showing recessionary tendencies Retail sales growth continues to slow Average monthly employment increased…

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  • ETF Report – May 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF report here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/146146105/Lighthouse-ETF-Report-2013-May As a new feature, the report also looks at mutual fund flows. Summary: Risk appetite has begun to cool off International equity ETF’s are seeing significantly less inflows than domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms (but similar inflows relative to their asset base) Emerging market equity ETF’s…

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  • ETF-Report April 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF-Report here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/141248746/Lighthouse-ETF-Report-2013-April   Conclusions: Current risk appetite remains high International equity ETF’s are seeing less inflows than domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms but higher inflows relative to their asset base Emerging market equity ETF’s are still outpacing those investing broadly in international equities but have experienced a significant slow-down…

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  • ETF Report – March 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF Report here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/133857690/Lighthouse-ETF-Report-2013-March Conclusions: Current risk appetite remains high International equity ETF’s are seeing less inflows than domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms but higher inflows relative to their asset base Emerging market equity ETF’s are still outpacing those investing broadly in international equities but have experienced a significant slow-down…

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