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  • “And the award for the most creative excuse for joining currency wars goes to…”

    Alexander Gloy

    … the Bank of Israel! On Monday, Bank of Israel cut interest rates in a surprise decision to 1.5% from 1.75%. Also, they are done with watching the Shekel strengthen against the dollar: “Beginning this year, and in coming years, the Bank of Israel will purchase foreign exchange in order to offset the effect of…

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  • Marco Report – March 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our March 2013 Macro Report here.

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  • ETF Report – February / March 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find our latest ETF Report here Summary: Current risk appetite is high International equity ETF’s are seeing similar inflows to domestic equity ETF’s in absolute dollar terms and higher inflows relative to their asset base Emerging market equity ETF’s are outpacing those investing broadly in international equities Inflows into speculative bond ETF’s have ended…

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  • Macro Report – February 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Based on a combination of 13 macro-economic variables, the likelihood of the US being in a recession dropped from 11% to 7% in February. Read the full report here.

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  • Lighthouse Macro Report – January 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Summary: The LRPI (Lighthouse Recession Probability Indicator) continues to indicate a one-in-nine likelihood for the US economy being in a recession. The implied recession probability remained at 11% in December compared to November. For January, data available so far include a final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (73.8, up from 72.9 in…

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  • (Mostly free) blogs we like

    Alexander Gloy

    Altos Research Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph) Annaly Capital – Executive Insights Behavioral Macro Bespoke Invest Bruce Krasting Christopher Whalen Condor Options Consumer Metrics Institute Daily ETF Flows Dr. Ed’s Blog Doug Short Economics of Contempt EconoPic EuroIntelligence FactSet FRBSF Economic Letter FT Alphaville (paywalled) FT Money Supply (paywalled) FT – Martin Wolff (paywalled) FT – Long Short (paywalled) Humble…

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  • VIX and subsequent performance

    Alexander Gloy

    How many times do you read “the VIX is so low, everybody is complacent, a crash must be around the corner”. Or “the VIX peaked, the fear has peaked, this is the moment to buy”? Contrary to conventional wisdom we found that a low VIX Index contains zero information about future stock market performance. Read…

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  • Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time

    Alexander Gloy

    Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.

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