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EU-Greek talks end without deal
After the IMF left negotiations with Greece, the EU also declared Sunday’s talks to have failed after a brief 45-minute meeting According to the EU Commission, a gap on fiscal measures was around EUR 2bn (1.1% of GDP) annually remains. That’s not huge, and probably not worth leaving the Euro-zone for, but who knows if…
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May US Retail Sales
May US retail sales came in a bit better than expected (core +1.0% versus +0.7% expected). That is a change from a series of earlier disappointments. Furthermore, April numbers were revised upwards: However, growth remains low. Since retail sales are a nominal value, low inflation (as currently) is holding back growth. Real retail sales…
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IMF stops bailout talks with Greece
Some headlines rattling markets a bit, citing IMF spokesperson Rice: * Greek bailout talks stopped amid failure to make progress * There are major differences between the IMF and Greece in most key areas * No progress in trying to narrow those differences * Talks are deadlocked over taxes, pensions and financing * Greece pension system…
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“Good evening, Mr. Bond” – Jim Rickards
Interesting article by Jim Rickards on falling bond market liquidity. He cites the flash crash in US Treasury bond yields last October: Falling yields mean rising bond prices. So the flash crash in yields actually was a flash rally in prices. Usually, investors only get hurt when prices fall (apart from a few short sellers).…
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JOLTs
April JOLTs (Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations) showed an increase in job openings to 5.38m, the highest since the beginning of the series in 2000. At the same time, the number of unemployed continues to decline (8.67m). Hence, the number of unemployed per job opening is falling rapidly (1.73): Does this mean the US labor market…
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2015-06-10 FX moves: JPY, EUR
BoJ (Bank of Japan) Governor Kuroda shook up FX markets a bit overnight, suggesting the Yen was unlikely to weaken further: The Yen rose quickly versus the Dollar from 124.50 to 122.50 (less Yen needed to buy one Dollar = stronger Yen): This is puzzling. The Yen had just begun another leg down…
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Understanding Oil
In this special report we look at the following points: 1. Oil, even at $100 per barrel, is incredibly cheap. 2. Demand and supply for oil are price-inelastic. Which guarantees large price swings. 3. Oil and gas deposits and consumers are millions of miles apart, making transportation the weakest link. 4. OPEC is not a…
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