-
Macro Report – May 2013
The Macro Report can be found here . April 2013 highlights: The likelihood of recession declined slightly to 7% from remained a revised 10% in the previous month Output by electric and gas utilities, industrial electricity consumption and miles traveled are the only variables showing recessionary tendencies Retail sales growth continues to slow Average monthly employment increased…
-
-
Macro Report – February 2013
Based on a combination of 13 macro-economic variables, the likelihood of the US being in a recession dropped from 11% to 7% in February. Read the full report here.
-
Lighthouse Macro Report – January 2013
Summary: The LRPI (Lighthouse Recession Probability Indicator) continues to indicate a one-in-nine likelihood for the US economy being in a recession. The implied recession probability remained at 11% in December compared to November. For January, data available so far include a final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (73.8, up from 72.9 in…
-
Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time
Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.
-
Conference Briefing: Jim Rickards at the DCA, January 10, 2013
Please find the document here
-
Macro Report – December 2012: 11% recession probability
Please find our December Macro Report here
-
Monetary Policy – The N-Word
In this excerpt from the December 2012 “Letter to Investors” we look at what looms when the Federal Reserve will embrace nominal-GDP targeting, possibly as early as 2013: Monetary Policy – The N-Word
-
GDP – A Primer
“GDP is one of the most comprehensive and closely watched economic statistics: It is used by the White House and Congress to prepare the Federal budget, by the Federal Reserve to formulate monetary policy, by Wall Street as an indicator of economic activity, and by the business community to prepare forecasts of economic performance that…
-
Lighthouse Macro Report – November 2012: Introducing LRPI
Frustrated by shortcomings of available tools I have created an indicator yielding timely and exact probabilities for US recessions. Please find the report here (freely available): Lighthouse Macro Report: Introducing LRPI
Category: Economy
Archive
- August 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- November 2022
- August 2020
- June 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- July 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- September 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- June 2013
- May 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- June 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- December 2009
- October 2009
