Economy – Page 3 – Lighthouse Investment Management

Bank Jog

Alexander Gloy

Jun 21, 2015

The Wall Street Journal called recent deposit outflows from Greek banks a “bank jog” (as opposed to “bank run”). A bank run usually leads to affected banks running out of cash quickly (within days or hours). The Greek banking system has been bleeding deposits since years. But the movement has been accelerating last week: If…

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EU-Greek talks end without deal

Alexander Gloy

Jun 14, 2015

After the IMF left negotiations with Greece, the EU also declared Sunday’s talks to have failed after a brief 45-minute meeting According to the EU Commission, a gap on fiscal measures was around EUR 2bn (1.1% of GDP) annually remains. That’s not huge, and probably not worth leaving the Euro-zone for, but who knows if…

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May US Retail Sales

Alexander Gloy

Jun 12, 2015

May US retail sales came in a bit better than expected (core +1.0% versus +0.7% expected). That is a change from a series of earlier disappointments. Furthermore, April numbers were revised upwards: However, growth remains low. Since retail sales are a nominal value, low inflation (as currently) is holding back growth. Real retail sales…

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IMF stops bailout talks with Greece

Alexander Gloy

Jun 11, 2015

Some headlines rattling markets a bit, citing IMF spokesperson Rice: * Greek bailout talks stopped amid failure to make progress * There are major differences between the IMF and Greece in most key areas * No progress in trying to narrow those differences * Talks are deadlocked over taxes, pensions and financing * Greece pension system…

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JOLTs

Alexander Gloy

Jun 10, 2015

April JOLTs (Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations) showed an increase in job openings to 5.38m, the highest since the beginning of the series in 2000. At the same time, the number of unemployed continues to decline (8.67m). Hence, the number of unemployed per job opening is falling rapidly (1.73): Does this mean the US labor market…

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Understanding Oil

Alexander Gloy

Jun 9, 2015

In this special report we look at the following points: 1. Oil, even at $100 per barrel, is incredibly cheap. 2. Demand and supply for oil are price-inelastic. Which guarantees large price swings. 3. Oil and gas deposits and consumers are millions of miles apart, making transportation the weakest link. 4. OPEC is not a…

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Macro Report – March 2015

Alexander Gloy

Feb 27, 2015

In this report we analyze the current state of the US economy and the likelihood of being in a recession. We are looking at the 13 best indicators for real-time clues for our proprietary recession indicator. This indicator has not given any wrong positive or false negative since 1971. Detailed charts on employment, consumption, orders…

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June Macro Report

Alexander Gloy

Jun 30, 2014

Free to download here: June Macro Report In our June report we look at 13 publicly available economic indicators. Looking at past reliability and timeliness we defined ranges, which, if breached, indicate certain recession probabilities. In this issue we added a detailed look at US inflation, which seems to have come to life over the…

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