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  • Crypto-Currencies – Presentation at NEC – April 21, 2018

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find slides for my presentation here

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  • The Bitcoin Phenomenon

    Alexander Gloy

    What is Bitcoin? Is it money? Will it be money of the future? We take a brief look at how it works and what it could do. I have been studying crypto-currencies for a few weeks only, so this is just scratching the surface. I don’t touch the subject of exchanges, for example. But it’s…

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  • Two Versions of the US Fiscal Deficit

    Alexander Gloy

    The US (federal) fiscal deficit has been deteriorating recently. This is an odd thing during the late stages of an economic recovery. The budget for 2016/17 (September 30) has been missed by around 10%, and the current fiscal year target (440bn) looks far off. While spending continues to increase, receipts (government income) have leveled off…

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  • US Macro Report – Employment Insight – May 2017

    Alexander Gloy

    Lighthouse US Macro Report – Employment Insight – 2017-05

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  • US Macro Report – April 2017

    Alexander Gloy

    Is the US economy heading into a recession? Most investors won’t know until it is too late. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares beginning and end of recessions, but often with a delay of more than a year. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) famously called a recession in September 2011 which never…

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  • What the hell just happened – Part 2

    Alexander Gloy

    Part 2 (for part 1, please look here) At the beginning of part 1, I offered three theories to explain what happened on global stocks markets, culminating in the flash crash of August 24, 2015: Flash-crash induced by high-frequency traders and panic-covering of short positions in volatility products US and China mutually crashing each other’s…

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  • What the hell just happened? Part 1

    Alexander Gloy

    Part 1 Most of the year, the S&P 500 Index traded sideways in a narrow range (+- 3% from end of 2014). Then, suddenly, this: The German DAX-Index had been up 26% by April, but had to give up all of its gains: A measurement of expected volatility, the VIX-Index, surged to the highest level…

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  • US June Retail Sales

    Alexander Gloy

    US June retail sales (-0.3% m/m) came in below expectations (+0.3%). Excluding car and gasoline sales, sales declined 0.2% (consensus +0.6%). On top of that, May sales were revised downwards by $1.7bn: Retail sales growth has slowed down into a range normally associated with recessions (see chart below). However, low inflation is partially to blame…

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  • June NFP

    Alexander Gloy

    US June non-farm payrolls (+223,000) came in roughly in line with expectations (+230,000). However, revisions over the past five months add up to -154,000. Each of the past five months has been revised downwards (something last seen during the 2008/09 financial crisis). No reason to sound the alarm, but definitely worth watching. Year-over-year, employment growth…

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  • Tsipras announces referendum on bailout

    Alexander Gloy

    From FT’s Peter Spiegel: “Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has announced a national referendum on whether his country should agree to creditors’ demands that would release desperately-needed bailout aid to avoid national bankruptcy. In a televised address to the nation after a late-night meeting of his cabinet, Mr Tsipras announced that the plebiscite would…

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