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  • Irish bond auction a “success” – EFSF would have been cheaper

    Alexander Gloy

    10yr Irish government bond yields eased today to 6.29% (-0.19) after the “successful” auction of 3 1/2 (yield 4.77% vs 3.63% at previous auction) and 8 year (6.02% vs 5.09%) new government debt. This now has cemented the fact that it would be cheaper for Ireland to ask the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) for…

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  • Greece cancels plans to sell additional debt

    Alexander Gloy

    Greece just cancelled a road show that was supposed to begin on Wednesday in London to sell more debt. The Prime Minister said “Greece won’t come to the market now” and “Greece is on target for deficit cuts”. Guys at the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) – on your marks! Looks like you might be…

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  • Irish and Portuguese spreads at all time highs

    Alexander Gloy

    All-time highs for Portuguese and Irish 10yr yield spreads: 10yr Portuguese government bond yields – intraday September 20, 2010. Source: Bloomberg. 10yr Irish government bond yields – intraday September 20, 2010. Source: Bloomberg. Market fears that tomorrow’s (9/21) EUR 1.5bn auction of fresh Irish debt (4 and 8 years) might not go well. Irish 10yr…

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  • Ireland: Rumors, rumors… and spread widening

    Alexander Gloy

    Here we go again: Irish 10yr government bond yields 6.27% (+0.23) this morning after article in the Irish Independent about possible IMF intervention. Rumors of Anglo Irish Bank going bankrupt. 10 year Irish government bond yield. Source: Bloomberg.com Portugal 10yr now at 6.07% (+0.11), highest since May.

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  • More on BoJ intervention; Swiss unions demand same

    Alexander Gloy

    According to rumors the BoJ (Bank of Japan) last night spent JPY 100bn ($1.16bn) on currency interventions. The Yen weakened by 3%. Will the BoJ be successful? The Japanese trade balance is positive by JPY800bn per month (or JPY 40bn per trading day) meaning they would have to buy half a billion USD per day…

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  • BoJ intervenes to weaken JPY

    Alexander Gloy

    BoJ (Bank of Japan) intervenes for the first time since 2004 in the currency market after the Yen reached at 15-year high versus the USD (hurting Japanese exporters). According to rumors they are throwing JPY 200-300bn (USD 2.4-3.6bn) on the market. Not huge, but it draws a line in the sand. Unless other central banks…

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  • Gold reaches new all-time high

    Alexander Gloy

    Gold reached a new all-time high on Tuesday. Two broker reports were speculating about the possibility of further “quantitative easing” (= printing money) by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), either after its meeting in September (21st) or November (2-3rd). Stock markets initially greeted the rumors with enthusiasm. But if those rumors were true, the…

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  • Greece: “oops I did it again” – but only for 6 months

    Alexander Gloy

    On Tuesday Greece sold 26 week bills with a yield of 4.82% (vs 4.65% in July). Six months is the longest debt Greece can currently sell. Any longer maturities would cost more than the 5% level they are currently paying for the EU bail-out. Today the 10yr government bond yield was unchanged at 11.37%. Wasn’t…

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  • Greece still imports EUR 3 for every EUR 1 it exports

    Alexander Gloy

    As John Mauldin (http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/) thankfully points out in his latest newsletter Greece still imports three times (!) as much as it exports. No surprise here as the Euro does not allow them to regain competitiveness by devaluation. Germany benefits from a weak Euro, but Greece’s trading partners are mostly inside the EUR block. An average…

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  • We have no clue about what is going to hit us next

    Alexander Gloy

    Google trends on the Greek crisis: 12 months ago nobody cared. Then, suddenly, it’s on the front page of the Financial Times. Lesson learned: we have no idea which financial bomb is going to blow up in our faces next. Argentina? Venezuela? Hungary? Ukraine? Ireland? Social unrest in Greece? Search term “Greek crisis”. Source: Google…

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