Lighthouse Investment Management

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Month: June 2011

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  • Merkel to Sinn: “In my office. NOW.”

    Alexander Gloy

    Hans-Werner Sinn, head of German research institute Ifo, has just put his life into peril. He had to pick a Swiss magazine (“Bilanz”) to express what nobody else is allowed to mention in Germany: “Greece is a bottomless barrel”. Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute Picture: Handelsblatt For those who remember, Sinn was the only one among…

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  • Sector momentum table 2011-06-03

    Alexander Gloy

    At the suggestion of one of our clients we looked at the momentum of S&P 500 sub-sectors. This might give a better picture of the overall stock market health. For example, the May 31st high hid the fact that cyclical stocks were already in decline since February on a relative basis: Now, look at Healthcare…

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  • Asset Momentum Table 2011-06-03

    Alexander Gloy

    Each week we test major asset classes for the strength of their momentum. We check: is current price above 20-day moving average? is current price above 50-day moving average? is 20-day moving average above the 50-day moving average? does the 20-day moving average have a positive slope (i.e. is it rising)? does the 50-day moving…

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  • LIMTI – technical outlook – update 6/2011

    Alexander Gloy

    The LIMTI (Lighthouse Investment Management Timing Index) is supposed to give indications on when to buy or sell investments related to the S&P 500 index. It is made up of 10 individual indicators (for example put-call ratio, % of stocks in the S&P 500 index trading above their 50-day moving average etc). Each index is…

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  • Investment choices in a world of incompetent central bankers

    Alexander Gloy

    Much of the following next is an excerpt from the May 2011 “Letter to investors”. This is supposed to be”big-picture thinking” and will only be updated if warranted. 1. As the economy is artificially inflated so are company profits and stocks. The party might continue – until someone like Paul Volker gets installed at the Fed. It…

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  • Looking back: “We are buying Greek government bonds!”

    Alexander Gloy

    May 3, 2010. The EU and the IMF have just announced a EUR 110bn bail-out for Greece. Greek 10-year government bonds are yielding below 9%. German financial newspaper “Handelsblatt” launches a multi-page call to lure unsuspecting citizens into buying Greek government bonds. You can (and should) still read this master piece here. Gabor Steingart, editor-in-chief, opens…

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  • ETF: Beware of systemic risk

    Alexander Gloy

    This is a topic I should have paid more attention to earlier: systemic risk in ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Here are my thoughts in a few bullet points: ETFs are a great idea. They allow diversification at minimal cost to the investor (especially compared to mutual funds). Unfortunately, the financial  industry is in the process…

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