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  • Who wants to own Investment Banks?

    Alexander Gloy

    I went through the latest available 10-Q filings of major US investment banks. I was after the break-down of assets in levels 1-3. As a reminder: Level 1: stuff that has a market price. Level 2: stuff that doesn’t have a market price, but is valued based on similar assets. Level 3: stuff that where…

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  • Market risk factors

    Alexander Gloy

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  • Event calendar

    Alexander Gloy

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  • All roads lead to a disintegration of the Euro

    Alexander Gloy

    Our investment thesis can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the  first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the remainder that is left over once debt is subtracted from assets. Recent GDP growth was possible only thanks to massive deficit spending and monetary…

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  • Rational decisions in closed systems

    Alexander Gloy

    In closed systems, rational decisions lead to irrational outcomes. Take a crowded stadium. A fight or fire breaks out. Panic ensues, and everybody scrambles to get out as fast as possible (rational). In the process, people are hurt or trampled to death (irrational). The same applies to the stock market. Rational behavior demands you buy…

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  • David versus Goliath – the SNB against everybody else

    Alexander Gloy

    A picture says more than a hundred words, so I wanted to present in graphical terms what happened at the Swiss National Bank over the last few quarters. Unfortunately, the SNB does not provide foreign currency positions including derivatives on an absolute basis, but here are the unhedged figures:   The SNB increased FX positions…

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  • Mental contortions of a printing machine operator

    Alexander Gloy

    “We never pre-commit” is the standard answer the ECB (European Central Bank) has for anyone asking about future interest rates (journalists regularly waste one of their two permitted questions at ECB press conferences). Why should central bankers not indicate future interest rates decisions? Because market participants will price that information accordingly, so the announcement would…

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  • Technical analysis February 8, 2012

    Alexander Gloy

    Time to take a look again at the technical picture of the S&P 500 Index, which seems to be in a nice uptrend, undeterred from anything: If only the volume was increasing (usually, higher prices are met with higher volumes as more investors are willing to part with their shares and buyers have to “eat”…

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