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  • EU-Greek talks end without deal

    Alexander Gloy

    After the IMF left negotiations with Greece, the EU also declared Sunday’s talks to have failed after a brief 45-minute meeting According to the EU Commission, a gap on fiscal measures was around EUR 2bn (1.1% of GDP) annually remains. That’s not huge, and probably not worth leaving the Euro-zone for, but who knows if…

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  • IMF stops bailout talks with Greece

    Alexander Gloy

    Some headlines rattling markets a bit, citing IMF spokesperson Rice: * Greek bailout talks stopped amid failure to make progress * There are major differences between the IMF and Greece in most key areas * No progress in trying to narrow those differences * Talks are deadlocked over taxes, pensions and financing * Greece pension system…

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  • “Good evening, Mr. Bond” – Jim Rickards

    Alexander Gloy

    Interesting article by Jim Rickards on falling bond market liquidity. He cites the flash crash in US Treasury bond yields last October:   Falling yields mean rising bond prices. So the flash crash in yields actually was a flash rally in prices. Usually, investors only get hurt when prices fall (apart from a few short sellers).…

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  • 2015-06-10 FX moves: JPY, EUR

    Alexander Gloy

    BoJ (Bank of Japan) Governor Kuroda shook up FX markets a bit overnight, suggesting the Yen was unlikely to weaken further:   The Yen rose quickly versus the Dollar from 124.50 to 122.50 (less Yen needed to buy one Dollar = stronger Yen):   This is puzzling. The Yen had just begun another leg down…

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  • “And the award for the most creative excuse for joining currency wars goes to…”

    Alexander Gloy

    … the Bank of Israel! On Monday, Bank of Israel cut interest rates in a surprise decision to 1.5% from 1.75%. Also, they are done with watching the Shekel strengthen against the dollar: “Beginning this year, and in coming years, the Bank of Israel will purchase foreign exchange in order to offset the effect of…

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  • Conference Briefing: Jim Rickards at the DCA, January 10, 2013

    Alexander Gloy

    Please find the document here

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  • Happy Centennial, Dear Fed

    Alexander Gloy

    Happy Centennial, Dear Fed! Click on above link to read the excerpt from our January 2013 “Letter to Investors”.

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  • Monetary Policy – The N-Word

    Alexander Gloy

    In this excerpt from the December 2012 “Letter to Investors” we look at what looms when the Federal Reserve will embrace nominal-GDP targeting, possibly as early as 2013: Monetary Policy – The N-Word

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  • Lighthouse Macro Report – November 2012: Introducing LRPI

    Alexander Gloy

    Frustrated by shortcomings of available tools I have created an indicator yielding timely and exact probabilities for US recessions. Please find the report here (freely available): Lighthouse Macro Report: Introducing LRPI

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  • “Who moved my recession?”

    Alexander Gloy

    Lakshman Achutan, ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) made a recession call for the US on September 30, 2011 (and confirmed it multiple times since then). Gary Shilling, titling his August letter “Global Recession”, says “We are already in a global recession.” However, equity markets don’t think so, with the S&P 500 trading less than 10%…

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