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Author: Alexander Gloy

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  • Derivative Demons

    Alexander Gloy

    Derivatives are not bad per se. They can help transfer risk. Transfer in time or to a different holder or both. But risk never goes away. In May 2022, the CBOE (Chicago Board of Options Exchange) introduced options on the S&P 500 stock index with expiration on every single day of the week. Meaning traders…

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  • US October 2022 Fiscal Situation

    Alexander Gloy

    The good news: Individual federal income taxes are STILL growing, and growing at a good clip: Corporate income taxes are also growing, but barely: Unfortunately, the gap between receipts and outlays is widening again, and so is the deficit: The “official” deficit (last 12 months) stands at $1.3 trillion. However, the actual deficit, as calculated…

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  • Money, Matter, Anti-Matter

    Alexander Gloy

    You cannot create money (in our current fiat monetary system) without simultaneously creating the same amount of debt. That is a hard thing to understand. Yet it is the key to understanding our monetary system. Most people immediately say “Well, the central bank just prints the money – where is the debt?” Yes, central banks…

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  • Thoughts on Digital Currencies: Are Liability-free CBDC possible?

    Alexander Gloy

    I recently attended the #CBDC #CentralBank #Digital #Currency Summit in Washington, DC in collaboration with the #IMF and George Washington University. Here are my thoughts. According to John Kiff, former Senior Financial Sector Expert at the IMF, retail CBDC are currently being explored in more than 90 jurisdictions: Source: John Kiff (www.Kiffmeister.com) Central Banks are spending a lot of effort on exploring…

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  • Physical Demand for Gold is Strong

    Alexander Gloy

    In September, #Switzerland exported 174 tonnes of #gold , an increase of 48% compared to a year ago. Exports by destination: 1. #China 44t (22t in Sept’21) 2. #India 35 (50) 3. #Turkey 32 (0) 4. #Thailand 13 (4) 5. #Emirates 11 (2) 6. #Singapore 9 (5) 7. #SaudiArabia 7 (1) Turkey had its strongest month since at least 2013. In general, physical gold is flowing from west to east. On the import…

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  • Did US Fiscal Deficit Decline by “Record $1.4 Trillion”​?

    Alexander Gloy

    The US federal #fiscal #deficit decline by a record $1.4 trillion for the 12 months ending September 30. This is what the latest monthly #Treasury statement claims. But is that true? Let’s dig in. For a start, the September deficit went up almost by factor of 7. Partially due to debt limit theatre a year ago: The good news: individual…

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  • What’s Up With Gold?

    Alexander Gloy

    While the #gold price is languishing around $1,650 per ounce (-10% so far in 2022), interesting things happened in Q3 in regards to physical demand. But first, a quick look at where the gold price gets determined and where it is being traded. Gold futures, the most liquid gold-linked instrument, trade at the COMEX (Commodity Exchange) in…

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  • The Little Bank That Lost 17% of GDP

    Alexander Gloy

    It’s true. The #Swiss National Bank (SNB) lost CHF 141 billion in the first 9 months of 2022. This equals to 17% of Swiss GDP (around CHF 800 billion): How could this happen? Around half of losses (CHF 70 billion) came from fixed income securities (as global bond prices fell). CHF 54 billion were losses in equities,…

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  • Inflation Insights – US Wage Growth

    Alexander Gloy

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes wages by sector. Can we see any hints of a slow-down in #inflation? Let’s have a look. In this chart, nominal hourly pay by sector, you can clearly see the recent acceleration in wages affecting all sectors in recent months: But, since all nominal time series go exponential…

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    Alexander Gloy

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Scelerisque purus semper eget duis. Quis blandit turpis cursus in hac habitasse platea. Pellentesque eu tincidunt tortor aliquam nulla facilisi. Sed cras ornare arcu dui vivamus arcu felis. Cursus euismod quis viverra nibh cras pulvinar mattis…

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