The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes wages by sector. Can we see any hints of a slow-down in #inflation? Let’s have a look.

In this chart, nominal hourly pay by sector, you can clearly see the recent acceleration in wages affecting all sectors in recent months:

But, since all nominal time series go exponential over time, we should probably look at it on a log scale:

Here you can see much better the strong wage growth during the 1970’s and early 80′, with recent growth looking much tamer.

Indexed to 1973, we see ‘the suits’ made out relatively well, while construction and retail sucked:

But what in terms of real wages (after inflation)? Workers in #manufacturing, #InformationTechnology, #construction and #retail are getting paid less than 50 years ago:

Finally, growth rates have slowed down in all sectors, with deceleration most noticeable in #Leisure & #Hospitality, followed by #Education & #Health, and #Retail:

Anybody below the 8% line is suffering real wage cuts.

CONCLUSION: It seems as (nominal) wage growth rates have already peaked, and most workers are even suffering declining real wages. This will have a negative impact on real consumer spending going forward. As consumer spending accounts for over two thirds of GDP, the outlook for economic growth is dim. As inflationary pressures from energy prices and their secondary effects slowly work their way through the supply chain we should see a moderation soon.