Lighthouse Investment Management

Publications

Recent Publications

Archive

Categorise

Recent Posts

Tags

CAPE earnings elections events growth PER stock market stocks valuation value

  • Portugal: fiddler paid, music stops

    Alexander Gloy

    While Greece is pretty forthcoming with its apocalyptic fiscal data, the same cannot be said of Portugal. When it comes to inquiring about monthly fiscal deficits you bite on granite. Banco de Portugal has limited quarterly figures. The “Instituto Nacional de Estatistica” has conducted a study about population growth in Angola. It supplies data series…

    Know More

  • The Greek (Ministry) Mystery of Finance

    Alexander Gloy

    The Greek January – September budget deficit was EUR 19.16bn versus 16.65bn same period last year (+15%). This only includes the central government. The initial deficit target for 2011 was EUR 17bn. We blew past that after only 8 months. The revised target (July) is now 22bn (9.5% of GDP). Latest estimate from the Greek…

    Know More

  • To EFSF or not to EFSF – a Franco-German drama

    Alexander Gloy

    (with simultaneous translation from Euro-lingo into plain English) 4:05: “Direct help for bank recapitalization from EFSF is not at all doable” – German Economy Minister (Translation: “Frogs, I thought we told you already, your plan doesn’t fly”) 6:00: “It is important to us that all banks are equipped for all eventualities and must go to…

    Know More

  • Zerohedge: High Noon at the Swiss National Bank

    Alexander Gloy

    Influential blog “zerohedge” published our recent post on the Swiss National Bank: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-high-noon-swiss-national-bank

    Know More

  • High Noon at the Swiss National Bank

    Alexander Gloy

    Tomorrow, Thursday (October 6th), the Swiss National Bank will report its foreign currency reserves for September at 9am local (3am EST). We will know then how much Euros had to be gobbled up in order to defend the “peg”. Increasing tick volume in recent days looks suspicious – why would there be more volume than…

    Know More

  • Improving LIMTI

    Alexander Gloy

    The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by efficient-market hypothesis (which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable). If stock prices were unpredictable, my clients would be wasting money. “Technical analysis” tries identify patterns that help determine future prices. You might ask “how can a formula know what happens in the future”? That is a…

    Know More

  • The Fed, ZIRP and the French boomerang

    Alexander Gloy

    Ben Bernanke promised to sit, like an elephant, on short-term interest rates for another two years  – at least. What were US Money Market Funds (MMF) going to do? US Treasury yields are 0.09% for 12 months, 0.02% for 6 and negative 0.01% for 3 months:   Source: Bloomberg 9/23/2011 You can’t deliver negative yields…

    Know More

  • Zerohedge: Bundesbank ready to pull the Euro’s Ripcord?

    Alexander Gloy

    Bundesbank ready to pull the Euro’s Ripcord?

    Know More