Lighthouse Investment Management

Publications

Category: Economy

Archive

Categorise

Recent Posts

Tags

CAPE earnings elections events growth PER stock market stocks valuation value

  • Greece: “oops I did it again” – but only for 6 months

    Alexander Gloy

    On Tuesday Greece sold 26 week bills with a yield of 4.82% (vs 4.65% in July). Six months is the longest debt Greece can currently sell. Any longer maturities would cost more than the 5% level they are currently paying for the EU bail-out. Today the 10yr government bond yield was unchanged at 11.37%. Wasn’t…

    Know More

  • Greece still imports EUR 3 for every EUR 1 it exports

    Alexander Gloy

    As John Mauldin (http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/) thankfully points out in his latest newsletter Greece still imports three times (!) as much as it exports. No surprise here as the Euro does not allow them to regain competitiveness by devaluation. Germany benefits from a weak Euro, but Greece’s trading partners are mostly inside the EUR block. An average…

    Know More

  • Deutsche Bank increases capital by 50% as Basel III rules announced

    Alexander Gloy

    On Sunday, G-10 Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) reached an agreement on new guidelines for banks, issued by the “Basel Committee on Banking Supervision”, also known as “Basel III”.: Took them 2 years after Lehman to realize the refined rules of “Basel II” were a joke (and almost led to a melt-down of the…

    Know More

  • We have no clue about what is going to hit us next

    Alexander Gloy

    Google trends on the Greek crisis: 12 months ago nobody cared. Then, suddenly, it’s on the front page of the Financial Times. Lesson learned: we have no idea which financial bomb is going to blow up in our faces next. Argentina? Venezuela? Hungary? Ukraine? Ireland? Social unrest in Greece? Search term “Greek crisis”. Source: Google…

    Know More

  • A deeper look at the EUR 80bn Greek bail-out treaty

    Alexander Gloy

    The EUR 80bn bail-out treaty from Greece (42 pages) is an interesting read. Among the countries providing credit are such pillars of wealth and stability like Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia and Slovakia. The Slovak parliament in August voted not to participate. Not to be disrespectful of small countries, but Cyprus and Malta will…

    Know More

  • Never get a mortgage in a different currency than your income

    Alexander Gloy

    Poor Hungarian souls who financed their house with Swiss Franc mortgages before the financial crisis (80-90% of all new mortgages in 2006 and 2007; interest rates were as low as 3% compared to 12% in HUF). Not only has your debt increased by 50% in local currency, but your house is probably worth less, too.…

    Know More

  • European Periphery on Fire

    Alexander Gloy

    Greek 10yr yields surge to 11.71% (from 11.35% a week ago) after reports of EUR 4bn deposits having left the Greek banking system in August. Greek 10yr government bond yield. Source: Bloomberg.com In the US it is illegal to call for a bank run, so all I am going to say is that if you…

    Know More

  • BoJ emergency meeting

    Alexander Gloy

    The BoJ (Bank of Japan) announced an emergency meeting for 5am GMT Thursday. According to rumors the recent strength in the Japanese Yen and falling share prices will force the BoJ into further “monetary easing” (read: printing money). Gold owners should rejoice – all major Central banks have now boarded the train of self-destruction. To…

    Know More

  • European periphery on fire

    Alexander Gloy

    The European periphery is on fire. While German 10yr government bond yields declined to 2.33% (-0.06), Irish were unchanged at 5.31% and Greece widened to 10.67% (+0.19). Credit Default Swaps widened on Italy (from 130 to 200 within 2 weeks), Ireland (from 200 to 300) and of course basket-case Greece. Ireland will try to sell some…

    Know More

  • Friday 13th – predictions for the next 13 years:

    Alexander Gloy

    It’s Friday 13th, so here’s how things are going to pan out over the next 13 years: Greece is a tragedy. On May 7th they were already priced for a 30% haircut, and the banks prohibited it. So instead of dealing with EUR 210bn in debt (300bn *.7) they will be looking at 450bn in…

    Know More