Category: Central Banks

  • The (Euro) answer, my friend, is showing in the bond market

    Politicians and non-elected maquinistas are still trying to figure out how to make the still-borne EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) walk, or better, fly. A month after the “miracle of Cannes”, the trumpets of victory over the debt crisis have fallen silent. Instead, the first EFSF bond issue after the G20 summit ended up in…

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  • The Euro Fiasco Suicide Formula (EFSF)

    There is one simple rule for investors: avoid all things beginning with “Euro-“. Eurotunnel ended in bankruptcy. Eurodisney was a disaster for public shareholders. And so the Euro itself is following the same path. “Euro” birds European politicians are faced with one problem: none of their plans to end Europe’s debt crisis has worked. Absolutely…

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  • Mystery solved: ECB can’t afford the Greek barber shop

    Whenever you come across a mystery in finance there always is an explanation. Like the question why the ECB would so ferociously resist any “haircuts” on Greek debt. Despite all the evidence that current debt, now expected to peak at levels exceeding most calculators’ capacity, is unsustainable. Why would the ECB, the largest single holder…

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  • Portugal: fiddler paid, music stops

    While Greece is pretty forthcoming with its apocalyptic fiscal data, the same cannot be said of Portugal. When it comes to inquiring about monthly fiscal deficits you bite on granite. Banco de Portugal has limited quarterly figures. The “Instituto Nacional de Estatistica” has conducted a study about population growth in Angola. It supplies data series…

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  • To EFSF or not to EFSF – a Franco-German drama

    (with simultaneous translation from Euro-lingo into plain English) 4:05: “Direct help for bank recapitalization from EFSF is not at all doable” – German Economy Minister (Translation: “Frogs, I thought we told you already, your plan doesn’t fly”) 6:00: “It is important to us that all banks are equipped for all eventualities and must go to…

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  • High Noon at the Swiss National Bank

    Tomorrow, Thursday (October 6th), the Swiss National Bank will report its foreign currency reserves for September at 9am local (3am EST). We will know then how much Euros had to be gobbled up in order to defend the “peg”. Increasing tick volume in recent days looks suspicious – why would there be more volume than…

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  • The Fed, ZIRP and the French boomerang

    Ben Bernanke promised to sit, like an elephant, on short-term interest rates for another two years  – at least. What were US Money Market Funds (MMF) going to do? US Treasury yields are 0.09% for 12 months, 0.02% for 6 and negative 0.01% for 3 months:   Source: Bloomberg 9/23/2011 You can’t deliver negative yields…

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  • Bundesbank ready to pull the Euro’s ripcord

    Something odd is happening. Germans are leaving the ECB. First Weber, then Stark. Why would senior German officials withdraw from the ECB just at a time when they should seek greater influence? One explanation: to avoid having a conflict of interest once Germany re-instates the Bundesbank as the leading central bank of Europe. Currently, Germany…

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  • Get your half-yearly dose of hopium from the IMF

    With the publication of the half-yearly “World Economic Outlook” by the IMF it’s time again to look confidently into the bright economic future – or is it? Let’s examine how the IMF wizards fared compared to their own (past) forecasts: Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Table 2.2 (Selected European Economies); October 2010 (page 75), April…

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  • Save the Swiss Gold

    According to an article in Swiss newspaper NZZ (Neue Zuercher Zeitung) the SVP party (Swiss People’s Party) launched a referendum to “protect” the 1,000 tonnes of gold owned by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Their aim is to: make it unconstitutional to sell gold force the SNB to hold 20% of its assets in gold…

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