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Crypto-Currencies – Presentation at NEC – April 21, 2018
Please find slides for my presentation here
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The Bitcoin Phenomenon
What is Bitcoin? Is it money? Will it be money of the future? We take a brief look at how it works and what it could do. I have been studying crypto-currencies for a few weeks only, so this is just scratching the surface. I don’t touch the subject of exchanges, for example. But it’s…
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Currency Crunch – July 2017 – From Gold Standard to Petro-Dollar-Standard
Lighthouse – Currency Crunch – 2017-07
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What the hell just happened – Part 2
Part 2 (for part 1, please look here) At the beginning of part 1, I offered three theories to explain what happened on global stocks markets, culminating in the flash crash of August 24, 2015: Flash-crash induced by high-frequency traders and panic-covering of short positions in volatility products US and China mutually crashing each other’s…
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What the hell just happened? Part 1
Part 1 Most of the year, the S&P 500 Index traded sideways in a narrow range (+- 3% from end of 2014). Then, suddenly, this: The German DAX-Index had been up 26% by April, but had to give up all of its gains: A measurement of expected volatility, the VIX-Index, surged to the highest level…
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Gold: Religion or Salvation?
What can you do if your investment thesis is not working? Look at the arguments of the opposing camp, see if they are convincing or if your train of thought is holding up. Whom should we hear for the case against gold? You can’t take so-called “research” from investment banks. They are (best case) clueless, as…
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Gold Crash July 20
In early Asian trade (9:29am Australian time) Gold futures suddenly tanked 5% within seconds. There was no news, no movement in the EUR/USD or other currency pairs. Silver followed, as usual: The selling was so sudden and so violent trading was halted twice (see above). Who would sell thousands of gold futures at once into…
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US June Retail Sales
US June retail sales (-0.3% m/m) came in below expectations (+0.3%). Excluding car and gasoline sales, sales declined 0.2% (consensus +0.6%). On top of that, May sales were revised downwards by $1.7bn: Retail sales growth has slowed down into a range normally associated with recessions (see chart below). However, low inflation is partially to blame…
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June NFP
US June non-farm payrolls (+223,000) came in roughly in line with expectations (+230,000). However, revisions over the past five months add up to -154,000. Each of the past five months has been revised downwards (something last seen during the 2008/09 financial crisis). No reason to sound the alarm, but definitely worth watching. Year-over-year, employment growth…
Category: Central Banks
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