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  • Count-down to Grexit?

    Alexander Gloy

    The ECB has painted itself into a corner. The table below is quite good. In the left column you see that customers have withdrawn around EUR 40bn from Greek banks since October 2014 (almost a quarter of all deposits). Capital flight is in full bloom. The ECB is keeping the Greek banking system alive by…

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  • Someone would like to see Greece burn

    Alexander Gloy

    After the close of European equity markets the Sueddeutsche Zeitung ran the following story: Without naming sources, the newspaper claims Euro-Group had decided on an emergency plan for Greece, which would include capital controls. Which is nonsense, since only Greece can decide on capital controls. Greece, of course, denied having such plans: By refusing to…

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  • EU-Greek talks end without deal

    Alexander Gloy

    After the IMF left negotiations with Greece, the EU also declared Sunday’s talks to have failed after a brief 45-minute meeting According to the EU Commission, a gap on fiscal measures was around EUR 2bn (1.1% of GDP) annually remains. That’s not huge, and probably not worth leaving the Euro-zone for, but who knows if…

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  • IMF stops bailout talks with Greece

    Alexander Gloy

    Some headlines rattling markets a bit, citing IMF spokesperson Rice: * Greek bailout talks stopped amid failure to make progress * There are major differences between the IMF and Greece in most key areas * No progress in trying to narrow those differences * Talks are deadlocked over taxes, pensions and financing * Greece pension system…

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  • “Good evening, Mr. Bond” – Jim Rickards

    Alexander Gloy

    Interesting article by Jim Rickards on falling bond market liquidity. He cites the flash crash in US Treasury bond yields last October:   Falling yields mean rising bond prices. So the flash crash in yields actually was a flash rally in prices. Usually, investors only get hurt when prices fall (apart from a few short sellers).…

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  • JOLTs

    Alexander Gloy

    April JOLTs (Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations) showed an increase in job openings to 5.38m, the highest since the beginning of the series in 2000. At the same time, the number of unemployed continues to decline (8.67m). Hence, the number of unemployed per job opening is falling rapidly (1.73): Does this mean the US labor market…

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  • Monetary Policy – The N-Word

    Alexander Gloy

    In this excerpt from the December 2012 “Letter to Investors” we look at what looms when the Federal Reserve will embrace nominal-GDP targeting, possibly as early as 2013: Monetary Policy – The N-Word

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  • Lighthouse Macro Report – November 2012: Introducing LRPI

    Alexander Gloy

    Frustrated by shortcomings of available tools I have created an indicator yielding timely and exact probabilities for US recessions. Please find the report here (freely available): Lighthouse Macro Report: Introducing LRPI

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  • September data reveals increased risk appetite among ETF investors

    Alexander Gloy

    Tracking flows in and out of major exchange-traded funds (ETF) can reveal investors’ risk appetite. The 23 largest ETF’s by assets under management represent approximately 50% of all US ETF assets. In September, the largest inflows in percent of assets were registered by domestic equity (SPY), gold mining stocks (GDX) and high yield bonds (HYG):…

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  • “Who moved my recession?”

    Alexander Gloy

    Lakshman Achutan, ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) made a recession call for the US on September 30, 2011 (and confirmed it multiple times since then). Gary Shilling, titling his August letter “Global Recession”, says “We are already in a global recession.” However, equity markets don’t think so, with the S&P 500 trading less than 10%…

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