Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.
Stock market performance during bull markets is mainly (89%) explained by the duration of the bull market (defined as an uptrend without any pull-backs of 20% or more). To read the entire article, please click here.
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[…] Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time (Lighthouse) […]
[…] Regression analysis of historical secular stock markets | Lighthouse Investment Management Research covered data from 1950-2012: 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time duration (r-squared); average secular bull lasts 1669 days/+109% median (mean 1878 days/+164%, skewed higher due to 1987-2000 outlier). That means the current bull will end October 2013 (per median) or April 2014 (mean). Bear markets average 517 days/-34%, but they depend less on duration (29% r-squared) and more on fundamentals, specifically leverage–the more leverage gets stretched, the deeper the correction, since equity = assets – liabilities. […]