Category Archives: Bond Market

Mental contortions of a printing machine operator

“We never pre-commit” is the standard answer the ECB (European Central Bank) has for anyone asking about future interest rates (journalists regularly waste one of their two permitted questions at ECB press conferences). Why should central bankers not indicate future … Continue reading

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“Nobody understands debt (but me)”

Luckily they are easy to spot: the demagogues, the manipulators and the hired claqueurs. Unfortunately, there is no lack of media willing to provide a platform to perform their insidious game. Take Nobel-prize wielding economist Paul Krugman. In an article … Continue reading

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The ghost of the Bundesbank haunting the halls of Brussels

In his book “More money than God”, Sebastian Mallaby describes how George Soros received a signal from Helmut Schlesinger (president of Bundesbank at that time), to go ahead and speculate on a devaluation of the Italian Lira and the British … Continue reading

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The (Euro) answer, my friend, is showing in the bond market

Politicians and non-elected maquinistas are still trying to figure out how to make the still-borne EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) walk, or better, fly. A month after the “miracle of Cannes”, the trumpets of victory over the debt crisis have … Continue reading

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The Euro Fiasco Suicide Formula (EFSF)

There is one simple rule for investors: avoid all things beginning with “Euro-”. Eurotunnel ended in bankruptcy. Eurodisney was a disaster for public shareholders. And so the Euro itself is following the same path. “Euro” birds European politicians are faced … Continue reading

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Mystery solved: ECB can’t afford the Greek barber shop

Whenever you come across a mystery in finance there always is an explanation. Like the question why the ECB would so ferociously resist any “haircuts” on Greek debt. Despite all the evidence that current debt, now expected to peak at … Continue reading

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Portugal: fiddler paid, music stops

While Greece is pretty forthcoming with its apocalyptic fiscal data, the same cannot be said of Portugal. When it comes to inquiring about monthly fiscal deficits you bite on granite. Banco de Portugal has limited quarterly figures. The “Instituto Nacional … Continue reading

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The Greek (Ministry) Mystery of Finance

The Greek January – September budget deficit was EUR 19.16bn versus 16.65bn same period last year (+15%). This only includes the central government. The initial deficit target for 2011 was EUR 17bn. We blew past that after only 8 months. … Continue reading

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The Fed, ZIRP and the French boomerang

Ben Bernanke promised to sit, like an elephant, on short-term interest rates for another two years  - at least. What were US Money Market Funds (MMF) going to do? US Treasury yields are 0.09% for 12 months, 0.02% for 6 … Continue reading

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Bundesbank ready to pull the Euro’s ripcord

Something odd is happening. Germans are leaving the ECB. First Weber, then Stark. Why would senior German officials withdraw from the ECB just at a time when they should seek greater influence? One explanation: to avoid having a conflict of … Continue reading

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